I think 2/3 of the population getting it is pretty extreme.
Got a link? I see lots of news sites quoting experts as saying that 60%, 75%, or 80% of the world's population getting a dose.
The 1918 H1N1 influenza outbreak infected somewhere between 50% and 75% of world population, and the experts say that this has higher infectivity than that. Why should 67% be implausible?
You'd think with the efforts that (at least some) countries are making (and with modern technology and communications) that we'd be able to get it lower than that. I mean, according to the CDC ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... -h1n1.html
) the "Spanish Flu" (technically it should be "American Flu", but that's another story - https://www.kshs.org/kansapedia/flu-epi ... 1918/17805
) infected 500 million people. The CDC link claims that was about 1/3 of the world's population, but that sounds more like a quarter since the global population around then was apparently more like 2 billion), and about 50 million died so that'd be a 10% fatality rate.
Today though we have over 7.5 billion people, so that kind of percentage would be staggering - 4.7 billion people infected? With a 1% fatality rate, that'd still be about 47 million people dead worldwide. Proportionally less than in 1918 but still horrifying - and yikes, if that many ended up catching it in the first place then we must have unimaginably fscked up managing its spread! If word from China is to be believed though, they've already got it mostly under control there (it sounds like a winning battle at least), so that's like 1.3 billion people not infected...
Interesting reading here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51970379
(Coronavirus: What could the West learn from Asia?)
I think the trouble is that the West isn't doing full lockdowns like China and some other Asian countries are doing - they're still thinking about 'flattening the curve' to reduce the load on health services and faffing around worrying about jobs and the economy and the markets, and meanwhile the virus spreads while ignorant people continue to socialise. They need to strictly enforce curfews and have only essential services running (which now in a rather surreal twist includes food delivery). Personally I'm totally fine with temporarily sacrificing some freedoms to stop this thing if that's what it takes, but that has to be strictly enforced and but they seem to be waiting til the very last minute to do a hard shut-down (if they do one at all), when they've already got thousands of cases. It's too late by then though - a lot of countries are going to go the way of Italy as a result.
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